Study, recomputed from recorded data
How FanDuel prop lines move before games
Of the FanDuel props whose game has started, how many moved before the start, how far, and how often only the price moved. Recomputed from the recorded changes, at most every fifteen minutes.
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24% of props moved their line before the start
- Props studied
- 416
- Line moved
- 99
- Price moved
- 350
- Line moves
- 170
- Price moves
- 2,091
- Net move of 1 or more
- 82
Live counts Price-only moves outnumber line moves 12 to 1: a model that only watches the line misses most of the movement.
Per league
| League | Props | Line moved | Price moved | Avg net move | Moved 1+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 206 | 30% | 100% | 0.9 | 50 |
| NHL | 120 | 10% | 90% | 0.67 | 8 |
| NFL | 45 | 29% | 24% | 1.69 | 13 |
| NCAAF | 42 | 29% | 55% | 2.5 | 11 |
| NCAAB | 3 | 0% | 100% | n/a | 0 |
Method
- A prop is studied once its game has started (by the five-minute delayed clock) if it was first seen at least an hour before the start, so a prop listed minutes before tip-off does not count as one that never moved.
- Only changes recorded before the start count. Net move is the line before the first pregame line move against the line after the last.
- The record starts on the first day of collection, so early days hold fewer games. It measures what was collected, not every FanDuel market.
-- per prop, pregame only
count(*) FILTER (WHERE kind = 'line_move') AS line_moves,
count(*) FILTER (WHERE kind = 'price_move') AS price_moves
FROM changes WHERE created_at < prop.starts_atReproduce it from the change feed or a history export.
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